00:00 Spokesman a
US stock futures are smaller this morning for the second day after the S&P 500 has come out of its best winning series of 20 years, which helped to delete all its losses at Liberation Day. But Wall Street strategists are not convinced of a smooth path forward. Here, to break up, if the tariff optimism has held its courses, the Yahoo Finance Markets reporter Josh Scheffer and well, now there is some optimism, I guess, but there is still this lack of clarity around what the transactions will connect.
00:50 Josh Scheffer
Yes, it looked just like the last two weeks as we went through this rally, the type of key parts we had heard about commercial deals was good, there was a discussion, right? And initially obviously there was no discussion, so it seemed like it was something like the positive news. There was some discussion with many members of the administration, saying that deals were approaching in the last week. Now it seems that strategists want to see a deal, right? What does the deal actually look like? And then how does the market respond to this deal, right? So we have some positive prices, as the deal will reduce the tariff rate for any country, but what is the actual number and how the market reacts to this remains an occurring question. I think the other pieces of this rally, which stands out, the profits are relatively solid for the quarter, right? Of course, you mentioned Ford from last night, maybe not so solid eliminating this guide, but you generally go back to Big Tech last week. This was certainly part of this rally, wasn’t it? And you have seen the stocks respond positively to profit, it has helped to move the index higher. The RBC Capital Markets Laurie Calvosina, although it is emphasized, maybe this is starting to go. What is my next catalyst, right? And the next catalyst is probably more information about commercial transactions. And then you also hold the Fed’s meeting tomorrow and I think many people want to hear a little quote without date Dovish Powell, where he may be ready to intervene with cuts, if necessary, and investors want a little more confidence on this front, but you feel like a new one, I think it’s about 14% of the bottom of the bottom
03:24 Spokesman a
And we currently have no commercial deals. The president over the weekend said a deal with China could come in two to three weeks. Deals can come right after this week to other countries. To what extent the sources you are talking to do you really rely on these trade deals specifically as the next catalyst or are good with some other catalyst who comes in here?
04:02 Josh Scheffer
I think it looks mainly like a trade deal specifically over the next few weeks, Madi. As in the next probably until the end of May, right? I think people want to see the actual progress that is beginning to happen because you remember another key part of this story we have been talking about is something like how uncertainty plays a role in the economy, right? So, if we do not know what the actual tariff rates will be, it continues to freeze business, it continues to be overhanging in the common activity. So it seems that many people go around two to three weeks a time frame here, which would generally put us by the end of May, where it is good, we want to actually see something, to hear something. I think from another point of view of the catalyst, the data that will start entering the next few weeks will also start to be interesting, right? You will receive a report on inflation in April, which in theory could have some level of tariff impact on it. You will then push it again for the next two or three weeks. You will get a profit from NVIDIA. You will also receive data from May that will start to flow in early June and is the job report be retained? And now we’re talking about a month down, but is that still holding back? You will start to have the effects of the tariffs that actually go into the data over the next few weeks and this is felt so that it will be a big test for this rally.
06:18 Spokesman a
Well, the other catalyst may come from the Fed. If we hear them talk about any kind of consequences for the balance that they are moving in this part and perhaps not all say, we begin this basic process of quantitative relief and in the absence of cutting, this is something that the markets could also consider as a short -term catalyst.
07:16 Josh Scheffer
Surely, Brad. And I think the other thing that interests me from this Fed meeting is to see this big move in some investors’ expectations to reduce the percentage this year, right? Last week, investors were expecting four interest reductions. He is now up to three in less than a week for jobs. So it seems that investors have begun to realize that perhaps the Fed will not reduce this year and maybe these rates cuts do not come in June. They can start in July. They can start later during the year. But if Powell actually says that tomorrow or something like appointing this, the markets are still accepting this in a step, right? Sometimes these expectations will enter a Fed meeting, Fed J. chairman J. Powell says something he said before or says something that the market has felt as if he understands, but you still get a negative reaction to this or perhaps a positive reaction to that. There is usually some sharp move, even if it just confirms what people feel. So I think it will be interesting to see in which direction we are going, come, you know, 3:00 tomorrow.
08:40 Speaker b
Yes, very exciting to follow this meeting. As always, the most important of the last jobs. Thanks a lot. I really appreciate it.